A positive feedback loop

"The global recovery in 2009 is likely to be stronger than expected by consensus. We continue to expect the global recession to end in Q3 2009 and see this as one of the dominant drivers for financial markets in coming quarters". This is the conclusion of a new forecast for the global economy from Danske Research, the Danske Bank Group's research unit under Danske Markets, published on June 8, 2009. In 'Global Scenarios: A positive feedback loop', Danske Research expects the global recession to end as early as Q3 2009.

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Allan von Mehren, Chief Analyst, highlights conclusions

Highlights of ’Global Scenarios: A positive feedback loop'

Global recovery theme to continue in coming quarters
- Lean inventories and record stimulus provide a powerful cocktail for growth
Leading indicators expected to continue to surprise on the upside
- The improvement is likely to be visible in all regions, although strongest in US and Asia
G3 expected to get out of recession territory in Q3
- Growth rates to be strongest in US and Asia, but Euroland will benefit from higher exports as well
Underlying inflation to remain subdued due to high unemployment and excess capacity
- but a commodity-driven rise in CPI could create jitters in certain markets
Central banks likely to keep rates unchanged for a long time
- Exit strategies to come in focus during H2 2009

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Published on June 11, 2009

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