The year 2007 is expected to be another satisfactory year for the Danske Bank Group.
The Group’s outlook is based on pro forma figures for 2006.
The Group maintains its profit guidance for 2007 on the basis of the financial results for the first nine months of 2007. The net profit for the year is therefore still expected to match the proforma-2006 level.
Throughout the remainder of 2007, Europe is likely to see unchanged average interest rates and moderate economic growth. Economic growth in Denmark may be slightly lower than the EU average, whereas growth rates in the Group’s other markets are expected to be higher.
Income
Net interest income is expected to rise by 8-10% primarily as a result of double-digit lending growth in the markets on which the Group operates and expectations that average interest rates will remain unchanged throughout the remainder of 2007.
Net fee income is likely to grow by 1-3%, due mainly to an increase in trading volume on the securities markets and despite expenses for the credit default swaps entered into in connection with the financing of the acquisition of the Sampo Bank group. Mortgage finance activities are likely to slow down.
Net trading income is expected to increase by 3-7% on the high level recorded in 2006. The Group expects to maintain its market position, but income will continue to depend greatly on trends in the financial markets, including the level of securities prices at the end of the year.
Other income is likely to fall by 5-7% as the Group does not expect to realise income from
the sale of property on the scale recorded in 2006.
The high return on investments achieved by the Group’s insurance business in the first half of 2007 fell to a more normal level in the third quarter of the year. Overall, net income from insurance business is expected to fall by 2-5% on the income received in 2006. This decline should be seen in the light of the reduction in capital allocated to the insurance business in 2007. However, this result, too, may be greatly affected by trends in the financial markets.
Expenses
The Group expects operating expenses to rise by around 9%, with an underlying increase of 1%.
Profit before credit loss expenses
Profit before credit loss expenses is expected to be slightly higher than the profit before credit loss expenses reported for 2006.
Credit loss expenses
The Group does not expect to realise a net positive entry for credit loss expenses for the year as a whole as was the case in 2006. Assuming favourable economic trends and satisfactory credit quality of its loan portfolio, the Group expects to record modest credit loss expenses in 2007.
Profit before tax
Profit before tax for 2007 is therefore expected to be slightly lower than the profit before tax generated in 2006.
Tax
The positive effect of amendments to Danish tax regulations is expected to reduce the tax charge for the year by DKr0.5bn. As a result of the amendments, the Group’s effective tax rate is expected to fall from 27% to 25%.
Net profit for the year
Overall, net profit for the year is expected to match the pro-forma-2006 level.
Updated overview of outlook for 2007
| Net interest income |
22,610 |
8 - 10 |
| Net fee income |
8,877 |
1 - 3 |
| Net trading income |
7,280 |
3 - 7 |
| Other income |
2,952 |
(5) - (7) |
| Net income from insurance business |
1,355
|
(2) - (5)
|
| Total income |
43,074 |
|
| Total operating expenses |
22,640 |
9 |
| Profit before credit loss expenses |
20,434 |
Slightly higher |
Previous overview of outlook for 2007
| Net interest income |
22,610 |
8 - 10 |
| Net fee income |
8,877 |
1 - 3 |
| Net trading income |
7,280 |
3 - 7 |
| Other income |
2,952 |
(5) - (7) |
| Net income from insurance business |
1,355
|
(2) - (5)
|
| Total income |
43,074 |
Slightly higher |
| Total operating expenses |
22,640 |
8 - 9 |
| Profit before credit loss expenses |
20,434 |
0 - 2 |
Archive
| August 9, 2007 |
| May 1, 2007 |
| January 31, 2007 |
| October 31, 2006 |
| August 10, 2006 |
| May 2, 2006 |
| February 9, 2006 |
| November 1, 2005 |
| August 11, 2005 |
| May 3, 2005 |
Last updated/revised on October 30, 2007