Global Scenarios - The tide is turning

Danske Bank Markets expects the global economy to recover in 2013 as policy uncertainty fades and global policy stimulus has become stronger.

We forecast global GDP to rise 3.8% in 2013 after 3.3% in 2012. Our forecasts for next year are slightly above consensus - particularly in China. In 2014, we look for global growth to rise further to 4.0%.

Emerging markets are expected to recover from a two-year slump, which will be an important impetus for global demand.

Fiscal policy, tight credit in the euro area and low wage growth in advanced economies should keep the global recovery moderate.

The main uncertainty still relates to policy. A failure of US politicians to avoid a fiscal cliff or renewed escalation of the euro crisis are the primary risk factors.

 

Read the Global Scenarios publication here (PDF)

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Allan Von Mehren
Chief Analyst
+45 45 12 80 55

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