Danske Bank Group's pre-tax profit for 2005 is now expected to be higher than predicted at the publication of the Interim Report for the first half of 2005.
In 2005, Europe is likely to continue to see generally low economic growth and generally low interest and inflation rates. The Group expects growth in its principal markets to be higher than overall European growth, however.Income
Net interest income and net fee income from banking activities and mortgage finance are expected to rise from the level recorded in 2004. The increase in income from property financing at all Nordic units, among other activities, is likely to more than compensate for the decline in income from UK and US wholesale banking activities. The strong remortgaging activity is unlikely to continue at the same pace in the last months of the year. The newly acquired banks in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland were consolidated in the Group's accounts from March 1, 2005.
Net trading income is expected to be higher than in 2004 due to the high level of activity during the first nine months of 2005. The strong activity is not expected to continue in the fourth quarter of 2005. Profits on the sale of HandelsFinans and unlisted shares will exceed similar one-off revenue in 2004. During the rest of the year, net trading income will continue to depend greatly on the trends in the financial markets, including the level of securities prices at the end of the year.
Net income from insurance business is expected to be lower owing to the booking of DKK 445 million in the fourth quarter of 2004 for risk allowances from previous years. The possible booking of part of the risk allowance outstanding from previous years of DKr436m has not yet been decided on.
Hence, the Group expects total income to increase around 15% from the level in 2004, although this still depends on the trend in prices on the financial markets, among other factors.Expenses
Expenses, other than those incurred by the banks in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, are expected to remain stable at the level recorded in 2004. The acquisitions in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland will increase total expenses, partly due to the operating expenses of the banks, and partly as a result of the integration costs and related costs of some DKK 1.5 billion. A good one-third of these costs will be expensed in 2005. Moreover, nearly DKK 1.7 billion of the total acquisition price will be recognised with other intangible assets that are amortised over a period of three years.
Consequently, the Group expects its total costs and its cost/income ratio to increase.Credit loss expenses
On the basis of the relatively favourable economic trends and the satisfactory quality of its loan portfolio, the Group expects to record a modest net positive entry for credit loss expenses. Pre-tax profit
Against this background, the pre-tax profit for 2005 is now expected to be around 25% higher than in 2004. However, the result will continue to depend, among other factors, on the level of activity, economic trends and the trends in prices on the financial markets.Tax
The Group expects its tax rate to be 28%.
Last updated/revised on 1 November 2005